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Cantonese strategy: Politburo meeting releases positive signals and follow-up market worth looking forward to

Cantonese strategy: Politburo meeting releases positive signals and follow-up market worth looking forward to
Can the surge in bank credit be sustained?Investing without looking at policies is like blindfolding. Come to Sina Finance University, listen to Miss Dong read the news and understand the market.  Original title: Guangdong Kai strategy | General trend judgment: Politburo meeting releases positive signals, follow-up market is still worth looking forward Source: Guangdong Kai Chongli, Liao Zongkui, Strategic Analyst, Guangdong Kai Securities Research Institute Why market risk is significantly higherIn a short-term perspective, changes in the market are more affected by risk appetite.This round of the market rebounded strongly, and the rapid improvement of risk appetite is the essence, which is reflected in several aspects: First, the rapid improvement of the GEM assessment.In this round of rebounds, the GEM has increased 杭州桑拿 by 27%. It is estimated that PE (TTM) has risen rapidly from 50 times the median of the main axis to 64 times, which is 85 in the past decade.Higher quantile level of 5%.  Second, the market’s trading volume is rapidly expanding.When market sentiment is high, the trading volume will be significantly enlarged.On February 21, GEM turnover was close to 266 billion, equivalent to the magnitude of the first quarter of 2019.Moreover, the turnover of the two markets has continued to be above one trillion yuan.  Third, the technology sector led the rebound.Generally speaking, when market risk expectations decline, funds will re-determine higher value blue chip stocks; when market risk appetite rises, funds will chase the gradually growing imaginative technology sector.Since February 3, the top six sectors of the increase are computers, electronics, communications, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fisheries, defense industry and media, all exceeding 20%.  Fourth, the bond market has declined.The bond market has a safe-haven nature. At the same time as the A-shares rebound in this round, we can see that the bond market has declined, and the 10-year government bond rate has rebounded from a low level.  (2) Liquidity continues to be loose. What are the reasons for counter-cyclical policies to promote market risk appetite?We believe that the direct driving force is the continuous easing of liquidity, and the indirect booster is the market’s deep expectation of the development of counter-cyclical policies.  1. Liquidity continued to ease the impact of eventual factors, prolonged the maintenance of a loose liquidity environment, and played an important role in this round of market rebound.On February 3, the highest interest rate was reduced by the reverse repurchase rate; on February 17, the highest interest rate was reduced by the interest rate; on February 20, the LPR interest rate quote was also reduced.  2. The Politburo meeting announced some new policy highlights. The meeting of the Politburo of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held on February 21 to plan and coordinate the work of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development.The Politburo meetings generally focus on economic issues in April, July, October, and December, while the Politburo meetings in February discussed economic issues, demonstrating the importance of current decision-making to stable growth.Combining the viewpoints of the macro group, we believe that this meeting revealed the following points: (1) The goal of “building a well-off society in an all-round way” remains unchanged.This means that steady growth will gradually achieve the main tone of this year’s policy, and more vigorous counter-cyclical adjustments will be needed to complete the goal of “building a well-off society in an all-round way.”  (2) Active fiscal policy must be more active, and prudent monetary policy must be more flexible and appropriate.The formulation of the Central Economic Work Conference at the end of 2019 is currently more active in setting fiscal and monetary policies.  (3) Actively expand effective demand, promote consumption recovery and potential release, and play a key role in effective investment.This also regulates the main line of policy for investment: First, it is necessary to pay attention to emerging consumption. This Politburo meeting also emphasized, “Promote the rapid development of biomedicine, medical equipment, 5G networks, industrial Internet, etc.”” Second, focus on traditional bulk consumption (especially automobile consumption), because this is still the largest consumer.An important article of Qiushi magazine pointed out, “We must actively stabilize traditional bulk consumption such as automobiles, and encourage areas where automobile purchase is restricted to appropriately increase the substitution of automobile license plates to drive consumption of automobiles and related products.Third, industries that have been impacted by incidental factors.The Politburo meeting clearly stated that “it is necessary to help the accommodation and catering, sports and entertainment, transportation, tourism, etc.” industries.  General trend judgment: Politburo meeting releases positive signals, follow-up market is still worth looking forward to (1) Market is still worth looking forward to Since February, the changed liquidity policy has been loose, and excess liquidity is more likely to accumulate in the financial market.The reason for the ever-increasing trading volume in the stock market.  We believe that the recovery of the economy still needs to be reduced, and liquidity is still expected to remain less relaxed, while counter-cyclical fiscal and industrial policies are still in the stage of gradual landing in the future, and the market is still worth looking forward to.If big financial surges, the market is likely to try to challenge the highs of mid-January.Of course, we also noticed that the external market has recently adjusted slightly, and we need to pay attention to whether overlapping inflows have caused interference.  (2) The three main line configurations suggest that the market rebound a bit faster, but we need to realize that the recovery of the economy does not happen overnight, and we must not take it lightly. We must be prepared for a protracted war on our positions.In the configuration, we quote three main lines: one of the main lines, and continue to arrange strong technology on the right.Judging from the trend, the current technology sector is in the upward phase of heavy volume. Without external interference, this trend will probably continue.The technology sector has better performance and positive logic. It is the main line of market funds and the main direction of emerging consumption.Semiconductors, panels, wifi6, cloud computing wireless headset industry chain, Tesla industry chain, etc. are worth paying attention to.  The second main line is big finance, especially brokerages.The introduction of new rules for refinancing has formed a positive effect on securities firms, and the securities firms sector has been eager to try this week.In addition, liquidity continues to be loose. At present, the market’s expectations for expanding and lowering the benchmark interest rate are increasing, which is conducive to reducing the cost of debt end of the bank, which is good for the banking sector.  The third main line is the consumption of traditional durable goods and manufacturing.Short-term performance has been impacted to some extent.However, incidental factors were brought under control, and the reunion union continued to repeat the shortage demand.If coupled with the possible counter-cyclical policies in the future, these sectors are driven by demand-compensated recovery.  Risk reminder: the external environment deteriorates, policy easing is less than expected, and the economy is down again. Following is the main body of the market. After the Spring Festival, the market has rebounded rapidly.As of February 21, the Shanghai Index once reached 3059 points, which has rebounded from the low of February 4 by 13.9%, a big challenge of 3127 in mid-January.Among them, the rebound of the ChiNext is particularly strong, and the rebound rate has reached 27%, hitting a new high since July 2016.  The speed and intensity of the market’s rebound this time have clearly exceeded market expectations.What factors have caused the rebound beyond expectations, and what are the characteristics of the current rebound?Where is the focus of future market attention, and how should investors allocate it?This article will attempt to answer these investor concerns.  First, why the market risk appetite has risen significantly?  Although the market was impacted by eventual factors, the speed and magnitude of the market’s repairs exceeded market expectations, and the risks increased very quickly.  (1) Several manifestations of increasing risk appetite From a short-term perspective, market changes are more affected by risk appetite.This round of the market rebounded strongly, and the rapid improvement of risk appetite is the essence, which is reflected in several aspects: First, the rapid improvement of the GEM assessment.In this round of rebounds, the GEM has increased by 27%. It is estimated that PE (TTM) has risen rapidly from 50 times the median of the main axis to 64 times, which is 85 in the past decade.Higher quantile level of 5%.In the first quarter of 2019, there was also an estimated rapid increase in the GEM. At that time, the GEM was estimated to increase from less than 28 times to 58 times quickly. At that time, market risk appetite increased significantly.  Second, the market’s trading volume is rapidly expanding.We know that when the market sentiment is low, the trading volume will shrink; when the market sentiment is high, the trading volume will be significantly enlarged.On February 21, GEM turnover was close to 266 billion, equivalent to the magnitude of the first quarter of 2019.Moreover, the turnover of the two markets has continued to be above one trillion yuan.  Third, the technology sector led the rebound.Generally speaking, when market risk expectations decline, funds will re-determine higher value blue chip stocks; when market risk appetite rises, funds will chase the gradually growing imaginative technology sector.Since February 3, the top six sectors of increase are computers, electronics, communications, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fisheries, defense industry and media, all exceeding 20%; from the perspective of specific segmentation concepts, semiconductors, panels, wifi6Cloud computing wireless headset industry chain, Tesla industry chain, etc. are sought after.  Fourth, the bond market has declined.The bond market has a safe-haven nature. At the same time as the A-shares rebound in this round, we can see that the bond market has declined, and the 10-year government bond rate has rebounded from a low level.  (2) Liquidity continues to be loose. What are the reasons for counter-cyclical policies to increase market risk appetite?We believe that the direct driving force is the continuous easing of liquidity, while the indirect booster is the market’s strong expectation that counter-cyclical policies will work.  1. Liquidity continued to ease the impact of eventual factors, prolonged the maintenance of a loose liquidity environment, and played an important role in this round of market rebound.  First of all, on February 3, 1 was launched ahead of schedule.2 trillion reverse repurchase, while reducing the reverse repurchase rate.Take the 7-day reverse repo rate from Air Force’s 2.5% down to 2.4%, 14-day reverse repo rate from Rockets 2.65% down to 2.55%, which opened the market’s expectations for future cuts in MLF and LPR rates.  Generally speaking, on February 17, it is estimated that the MLF operation of USD 2,000 million will be launched and the MLF interest rate will be lowered.Take the 1-year MLF interest rate from 3 for the Air Force.25% down to 3.15%.  Finally, on February 20, the LPR interest rate was cut smoothly.Among them, the one-year LPR interest rate was reduced by 10bp to 4.05%, the 5-year LPR interest rate is reduced by 5bp to 4.75%.  2. The Politburo meeting announced some new policy highlights. The Politburo of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held a meeting on February 21 to study the prevention and control of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, and plan to coordinate the epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development.Politburo meetings typically focus on economic issues in April, July, October, and December, while the Politburo meetings in February discussed economic issues, demonstrating the value of current policymakers to steady growth.Combining the viewpoints of the macro group, we believe that this meeting highlights the following points: (1) The goal of “building a well-off society in an all-round way” remains unchanged.This means that steady growth will gradually achieve the main tone of this year’s policy, and more vigorous counter-cyclical adjustments will be needed to complete the goal of “building a well-off society in an all-round way.”Considering the impact of the fourth economic census, the annual GDP growth rate in 2020 needs to reach at least 5.5% to achieve the goal of doubling GDP.  (2) Active fiscal policy must be more active, and prudent monetary policy must be more flexible and appropriate.The central economic work conference in December 2019 set the macro policy as “proactive fiscal policy must vigorously improve quality and efficiency” and “stable monetary policy must be flexible and appropriate.”The Politburo meeting proposed that “proactive fiscal policies should be more proactive”, “prudent monetary policies should be more flexible and appropriate”, and that fiscal and monetary policies should be adjusted more actively.  (3) Actively expand effective demand, promote consumption recovery and potential release, and play a key role in effective investment.This also regulates the main line of policy for investment: First, it is necessary to pay attention to emerging consumption, and to seek the truth from important articles published in magazines, “To re-release emerging consumption potential, actively enrich 5G technology application scenarios, and drive 5G mobile phones and other terminals.Consumption, promote the increase of consumption in e-commerce, e-government, online education, online entertainment, etc.”This Politburo meeting also emphasized,” Promote the rapid development of biomedicine, medical equipment, 5G networks, industrial Internet and so on.”Second, focus on traditional bulk consumption (especially automobile consumption), because this is still the largest consumer.An important article of Qiushi magazine pointed out, “We must actively stabilize traditional bulk consumption such as automobiles, and encourage areas where automobile purchase is restricted to appropriately increase the substitution of automobile license plates to drive consumption of automobiles and related products.Third, industries that have been impacted by incidental factors.The Politburo meeting clearly stated that “it is necessary to help the accommodation and catering, sports and entertainment, transportation, tourism, etc.” industries.  Second, the overall research and judgment: The Politburo meeting released a positive signal, and the follow-up market is still worth looking forward to a short-term rapid rebound of nearly 400 points. Investors must be concerned about whether this market can continue and whether there will be a change in amplitudeAdjustment?  (1) The market is still worth looking forward to Since February, the long-term liquidity policy has been loose, and excess liquidity is more likely to accumulate in the financial market. This is why we have seen the stock market volume continue to increase.  The stock market’s regular budget reflects future economic and policy advances.We believe that the recovery of the economy still needs to be reduced, and liquidity is still expected to remain relatively relaxed, while counter-cyclical fiscal and industrial policies are still in the stage of gradual landing in the future, and the market as a whole is still worth looking forward to.If big financial surges, the market is likely to try to challenge the highs of mid-January.  Of course, we also need to pay attention to the fact that the external market has recently adjusted slightly.US stocks have declined in the past few trading days, and we need to pay attention to whether excessive redundancy has caused interference.  Taking a step back, even if the market adjusts, it will not appear from late January to early February. The continuous strengthening of counter-cyclical policies and the continuous easing of liquidity will support the stability of the entire market.  (2) The three main line configurations suggest that the market rebounds a bit quickly, but we need to realize that the recovery of the economy does not happen overnight and should not be taken lightly. The positions can be closed properly to prepare for a protracted war.In the configuration, we quote three main lines: one of the main lines, and continue to arrange strong technology on the right.Judging from the trend, the current technology sector is in the upward phase of heavy volume. Without external interference, this trend will probably continue.The technology sector has better performance and positive logic. It is the main line of market funds and the main direction of emerging consumption.Semiconductors, panels, wifi6, cloud computing wireless headset industry chain, Tesla industry chain, etc. are worth paying attention to.  The second main line is big finance, especially brokerages.Under the circumstances that the market continues to be active, it is indispensable for securities firms to siege.The introduction of new rules for refinancing has a positive effect on securities firms, and the securities firm sector has been eager to try this week.In addition, the liquidity environment continues to be loose. At present, the market’s expectations for expanding and lowering the benchmark interest rate are increasing, which is conducive to reducing the cost of debt end of the bank, which is good for the banking sector.  The third main line is the consumption of traditional durable goods and manufacturing.Short-term performance has been impacted to some extent.However, incidental factors were brought under control, and the reunion union continued to repeat the shortage demand.If coupled with the possible counter-cyclical policies in the future, these sectors are driven by demand-compensated recovery.